Goal expectancy
1.49Expected goals0.58
From 15 and 15 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Defensive grind — model leans Al-nahda
Estimated win chances: Al-nahda 59.5%, draw 26.1%, Sur 14.4%. From 15 and 15 competition matches.
Low tempo / cageyTempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleDefensive grind
Upset potentialLow
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
67BuildingAl-nahda
Weighted momentum
Al-nahda carries the sharper recent run (+46 momentum).
21Cold spellSur
Al-nahda · compact defense · hot formSur · low scoring · cold form
Al-nahda
10W · 4D · 1LRecent →WDDWLDDWWWWWWWW
Momentum index
Sur
2W · 3D · 10LRecent →LLDLDLWLWLLDLLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapAl-nahda +25
Al-nahda
34 pts67% wins
10W · 4D · 1L · 15 played
For21
Against7
Sur
9 pts13% wins
2W · 3D · 10L · 15 played
For4
Against19
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Al-nahda offensive edge
Al-nahda's attack (89%) vs Sur's defense (38%).
+51 - Sur offensive edge
Sur runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-51
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Al-nahdacompact defense · hot form
Surlow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 4 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
1Al-nahda25%
1Draws
2Sur50%