Goal expectancy
1.06Expected goals1.03
From 29 and 28 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Alumni 2-0 Libertad Asuncion Prediction
Defensive grind — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Alumni 35.8%, draw 30%, Libertad Asuncion 34.2%. From 29 and 28 competition matches.
Low tempo / cageyTempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleDefensive grind
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
26Cold spellAlumni
Weighted momentum
Libertad Asuncion arrives with stronger form weighting (+18 momentum).
44MixedLibertad Asuncion
Alumni · low scoring · cold formLibertad Asuncion · low scoring
Alumni
5W · 8D · 16LRecent →LLLWLLWDLLWLLLWLDLDDDLDLWLDLD
Momentum index
Libertad Asuncion
7W · 13D · 8LRecent →DDWLWLWDLDWDDDWLWDLLLWDDDLDD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Alumni
23 pts17% wins
5W · 8D · 16L · 29 played
For19
Against39
Libertad Asuncion
34 pts25% wins
7W · 13D · 8L · 28 played
For26
Against31
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Alumni offensive edge
Alumni faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-42 - Libertad Asuncion offensive edge
Libertad Asuncion's attack (71%) vs Alumni's defense (29%).
+42
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Alumnilow scoring · cold form
Libertad Asuncionlow scoring
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Alumni60%
0Draws
2Libertad Asuncion40%