Goal expectancy
1.30Expected goals0.84
From 28 and 28 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Defensive grind — model leans Aps Bomet
Estimated win chances: Aps Bomet 47.3%, draw 28.6%, Sofapaka 24.1%. From 28 and 28 competition matches.
Low tempo / cageyTempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleDefensive grind
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
37Cold spellAps Bomet
Weighted momentum
Aps Bomet carries the sharper recent run (+21 momentum).
16Cold spellSofapaka
Aps Bomet · low scoring · cold formSofapaka · low scoring · cold form
Aps Bomet
6W · 10D · 12LRecent →WWDDDLLDLWLDLDLLDWDWLDDLWLLL
Momentum index
Sofapaka
3W · 8D · 17LRecent →DDLDLLLLLLLLDDLLLDLLWLWDWLLD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapAps Bomet +11
Aps Bomet
28 pts21% wins
6W · 10D · 12L · 28 played
For28
Against33
Sofapaka
17 pts11% wins
3W · 8D · 17L · 28 played
For15
Against36
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Aps Bomet offensive edge
Aps Bomet's attack (100%) vs Sofapaka's defense (25%).
+75 - Sofapaka offensive edge
Sofapaka runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-75
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Aps Bometlow scoring · cold form
Sofapakalow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 1 meeting included in this prediction snapshot.
0Aps Bomet0%
1Draws
0Sofapaka0%