Goal expectancy
1.91Expected goals1.33
From 17 and 16 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Open / transitional — model leans Arbon
Estimated win chances: Arbon 51%, draw 22.3%, Bazenheid 26.7%. From 17 and 16 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityMedium
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
38Cold spellArbon
Weighted momentum
Arbon carries the sharper recent run (+8 momentum).
30Cold spellBazenheid
Arbon · High-risk / fragileBazenheid · High-risk / fragile
Arbon
6W · 2D · 9LRecent →DWLLLWLLWWLLLDWWL
Momentum index
Bazenheid
3W · 4D · 9LRecent →LLWDDLWLDLDWLLLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Arbon
20 pts35% wins
6W · 2D · 9L · 17 played
For28
Against34
Bazenheid
13 pts19% wins
3W · 4D · 9L · 16 played
For16
Against34
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Arbon offensive edge
Arbon faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-2 - Bazenheid offensive edge
Bazenheid's attack (54%) vs Arbon's defense (52%).
+2
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
ArbonHigh-risk / fragile
BazenheidHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 1 meeting included in this prediction snapshot.
0Arbon0%
0Draws
1Bazenheid100%