Arles 0-2 Caen Prediction

ArlesArles
0 — 2FT
CaenCaen
OverviewLineupsStatisticsStandingsEventsPlayersPredictionsFormInjuriesH2H

Updated

ArlesArlesvsCaenCaen

Match DNA · Predictions ↗

Balanced — model leans Caen

Estimated win chances: Arles 33.2%, draw 26.9%, Caen 39.9%. From 11 and 11 competition matches.

TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceLow

Outcome model

Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.

Goal expectancy

1.18Expected goals1.32

From 11 and 11 competition matches

Likely scorelines (Poisson)

  • 1–113%
  • 0–111%
  • 1–09.9%
  • 1–28.6%
  • 0–08.4%

Form & momentum

Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.

30Cold spellArles
Weighted momentum

Caen arrives with stronger form weighting (+18 momentum).

48MixedCaen
Arles · low scoring · cold formCaen · compact defense

Arles

3W · 4D · 4L
Recent →LLLDDWLWDDW
Momentum index

Caen

5W · 2D · 4L
Recent →LWLWLDWWLWD
Momentum index

Form split comparison

Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window

Season record

League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.

Table gapCaen +4

Arles

13 pts
27% wins

3W · 4D · 4L · 11 played

For
11
Against
15
Goal diff -4

Caen

17 pts
45% wins

5W · 2D · 4L · 11 played

For
18
Against
10
Goal diff +8

Season shape comparison

League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals

League depth signals

Extremes, discipline windows, and split stats from the full league profile.

Matchup edges

Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.

  • Arles offensive edge

    Arles faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.

    -24
  • Caen offensive edge

    Caen's attack (64%) vs Arles's defense (40%).

    +24

Team comparison

Comparison indices from the match data partner.

Attack rating

Attacking threat in the final third.

Arles36
Caen64

Defense rating

How well each side limits chances.

Arles40
Caen60

Momentum

Weighted form score (recent results count more).

Arles30
Caen48

Matchup edge

Attack vs opponent defense (positive = favourable matchup).

Arles2
Caen98

Volatility

Higher = more swingy results (big losses, goals against).

Arles30
Caen30

Form index

Head-to-head form comparison from the model.

Arles25
Caen75

H2H pull

Historical dominance in recent meetings.

Arles50
Caen50
Arleslow scoring · cold form
Caencompact defense

H2H in this snapshot

From 2 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.

2Arles100%
0Draws
0Caen0%

Recent meetings

Arles
3 – 2FT
Caen

Ligue 1Round 12
Caen
2 – 0FT
Arles

Ligue 1Round 28