Goal expectancy
1.07Expected goals1.31
From 27 and 28 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Progreso
Estimated win chances: Atenas 30.4%, draw 27.5%, Progreso 42.1%. From 27 and 28 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
47MixedAtenas
Weighted momentum
Progreso arrives with stronger form weighting (+13 momentum).
60BuildingProgreso
Atenas · low scoring
Atenas
8W · 8D · 11LRecent →WDWLWLLWDWWDLLWDDDLLDLDLWLL
Momentum index
Progreso
16W · 7D · 5LRecent →DWWDWLDWLLLDWWLWWWWDWWWDDWWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Atenas
32 pts30% wins
8W · 8D · 11L · 27 played
For20
Against28
Progreso
55 pts57% wins
16W · 7D · 5L · 28 played
For52
Against32
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Atenas offensive edge
Atenas faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-7 - Progreso offensive edge
Progreso's attack (69%) vs Atenas's defense (63%).
+6
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Atenaslow scoring
H2H in this snapshot
From 9 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
5Atenas56%
2Draws
2Progreso22%