Goal expectancy
1.67Expected goals1.11
From 28 and 28 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Auxerre
Estimated win chances: Auxerre 50.4%, draw 24.3%, Caen 25.3%. From 28 and 28 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
61BuildingAuxerre
Weighted momentum
Auxerre carries the sharper recent run (+10 momentum).
51MixedCaen
Auxerre
14W · 10D · 4LRecent →LDDWWDDDWWWWWDWLLDWWWWDWDDLW
Momentum index
Caen
12W · 6D · 10LRecent →LWWLWLDWWDWWWLDLDDLDLLLLWWWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapAuxerre +10
Auxerre
52 pts50% wins
14W · 10D · 4L · 28 played
For51
Against27
Caen
42 pts43% wins
12W · 6D · 10L · 28 played
For38
Against35
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Auxerre offensive edge
Auxerre's attack (36%) vs Caen's defense (33%).
+3 - Caen offensive edge
Caen runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-3
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
H2H in this snapshot
From 8 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Auxerre25%
6Draws
0Caen0%