Goal expectancy
1.26Expected goals1.21
From 4 and 4 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Bagé 1-1 Guarani RS Prediction
Balanced — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Bagé 37.6%, draw 27.2%, Guarani Rs 35.2%. From 4 and 4 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityMedium
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
28Cold spellBagé
Weighted momentum
Bagé carries the sharper recent run (+19 momentum).
9Cold spellGuarani Rs
Bagé · High-risk / fragileGuarani Rs · low scoring · cold form
Bagé
1W · 0D · 3LRecent →LWLL
Momentum index
Guarani Rs
0W · 1D · 3LRecent →LDLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapBagé +2
Bagé
3 pts25% wins
1W · 0D · 3L · 4 played
For3
Against9
Guarani Rs
1 pts0% wins
0W · 1D · 3L · 4 played
For1
Against4
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Bagé offensive edge
Bagé's attack (75%) vs Guarani Rs's defense (69%).
+6 - Guarani Rs offensive edge
Guarani Rs runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-6
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
BagéHigh-risk / fragile
Guarani Rslow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 2 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
0Bagé0%
1Draws
1Guarani Rs50%