Goal expectancy
1.26Expected goals0.90
From 4 and 4 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Bagé 1-2 Guarany de Bagé Prediction
Defensive grind — model leans Bagé
Estimated win chances: Bagé 44.7%, draw 28.8%, Guarany De Bagé 26.5%. From 4 and 4 competition matches.
Low tempo / cageyTempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleDefensive grind
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
39Cold spellBagé
Weighted momentum
Bagé carries the sharper recent run (+19 momentum).
20Cold spellGuarany De Bagé
Bagé · Structured / conservativeGuarany De Bagé · low scoring · cold form
Bagé
1W · 2D · 1LRecent →DLWD
Momentum index
Guarany De Bagé
0W · 2D · 2LRecent →DDLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapBagé +3
Bagé
5 pts25% wins
1W · 2D · 1L · 4 played
For3
Against3
Guarany De Bagé
2 pts0% wins
0W · 2D · 2L · 4 played
For1
Against4
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Bagé offensive edge
Bagé's attack (75%) vs Guarany De Bagé's defense (43%).
+32 - Guarany De Bagé offensive edge
Guarany De Bagé runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-32
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
BagéStructured / conservative
Guarany De Bagélow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
1Bagé20%
2Draws
2Guarany De Bagé40%