Barcia 1-3 Luarca Prediction

BarciaBarcia
1 — 3FT
LuarcaLuarca
OverviewLineupsStatisticsStandingsEventsPlayersPredictionsFormInjuriesH2H

Updated

BarciaBarciavsLuarcaLuarca

Match DNA · Predictions ↗

Open / transitional — model leans Barcia

Estimated win chances: Barcia 44.4%, draw 24.7%, Luarca 31%. From 7 and 7 competition matches.

TempoHigh
VolatilityMedium
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium

Outcome model

Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.

Goal expectancy

1.58Expected goals1.28

From 7 and 7 competition matches

Likely scorelines (Poisson)

  • 1–112%
  • 2–19.5%
  • 1–09.4%
  • 1–27.7%
  • 0–17.6%

Form & momentum

Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.

24Cold spellBarcia
Weighted momentum

Barcia carries the sharper recent run (+20 momentum).

4Cold spellLuarca
Barcia · High-risk / fragileLuarca · High-risk / fragile

Barcia

1W · 1D · 5L
Recent →WLLLLLD
Momentum index

Luarca

0W · 1D · 6L
Recent →LLLLDLL
Momentum index

Form split comparison

Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window

Season record

League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.

Table gapBarcia +3

Barcia

4 pts
14% wins

1W · 1D · 5L · 7 played

For
2
Against
14
Goal diff -12

Luarca

1 pts
0% wins

0W · 1D · 6L · 7 played

For
6
Against
19
Goal diff -13

Season shape comparison

League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals

League depth signals

Extremes, discipline windows, and split stats from the full league profile.

Matchup edges

Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.

  • Barcia offensive edge

    Barcia faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.

    -26
  • Luarca offensive edge

    Luarca's attack (71%) vs Barcia's defense (45%).

    +26

Team comparison

Comparison indices from the match data partner.

Attack rating

Attacking threat in the final third.

Barcia29
Luarca71

Defense rating

How well each side limits chances.

Barcia45
Luarca55

Momentum

Weighted form score (recent results count more).

Barcia24
Luarca4

Matchup edge

Attack vs opponent defense (positive = favourable matchup).

Barcia-2
Luarca102

Volatility

Higher = more swingy results (big losses, goals against).

Barcia41
Luarca56

Form index

Head-to-head form comparison from the model.

Barcia75
Luarca25

H2H pull

Historical dominance in recent meetings.

Barcia0
Luarca0
BarciaHigh-risk / fragile
LuarcaHigh-risk / fragile