Goal expectancy
1.85Expected goals1.49
From 25 and 25 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Open / transitional — model leans Boden
Estimated win chances: Boden 46.3%, draw 22.5%, Lucksta 31.2%. From 25 and 25 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityMedium
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
42MixedBoden
Weighted momentum
Boden carries the sharper recent run (+11 momentum).
31Cold spellLucksta
Lucksta · High-risk / fragile
Boden
9W · 7D · 9LRecent →WLLLWLLDDWWWLDLDWDWLDLWDW
Momentum index
Lucksta
8W · 4D · 13LRecent →WLLLLWDLLLLLWWLLDDLWWDWWL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapBoden +6
Boden
34 pts36% wins
9W · 7D · 9L · 25 played
For32
Against41
Lucksta
28 pts32% wins
8W · 4D · 13L · 25 played
For44
Against56
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Boden offensive edge
Boden faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
0 - Lucksta offensive edge
Lucksta runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-1
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
LuckstaHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Boden40%
1Draws
2Lucksta40%