Goal expectancy
1.63Expected goals1.50
From 34 and 33 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Bournemouth 3-0 Brighton Prediction
Open / transitional — model leans Bournemouth
Estimated win chances: Bournemouth 41%, draw 23.7%, Brighton 35.4%. From 34 and 33 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
50MixedBournemouth
Weighted momentum
Bournemouth carries the sharper recent run (+12 momentum).
38Cold spellBrighton
Bournemouth · leaky defenseBrighton · cold form
Bournemouth
12W · 9D · 13LRecent →WLDLWWWDWLDLDDLLWWWWDWWLWLLLLDDLLD
Momentum index
Brighton
11W · 11D · 11LRecent →LDLDLWLDWLWLDDWDLDWLWDDDLDLWWWLWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Bournemouth
45 pts35% wins
12W · 9D · 13L · 34 played
For49
Against60
Brighton
44 pts33% wins
11W · 11D · 11L · 33 played
For52
Against54
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Bournemouth offensive edge
Bournemouth's attack (75%) vs Brighton's defense (41%).
+34 - Brighton offensive edge
Brighton runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-34
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Bournemouthleaky defense
Brightoncold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
4Bournemouth80%
0Draws
1Brighton20%