Model outlook versus market-implied chances (overround removed from decimal odds). For entertainment and analysis only — not betting advice.
Estimated outcome mix from predictions endpoint
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If a certain Danish lager company did football days, Saturday at the Gtech was the perfect one. Watching a very welcome victory in sunshine and replica shirts, while moving up to sixth in the table, was brilliant - and the cherry on the cake was the return to action of the much-loved Josh Dasilva. Brentford last won at home on the first Wednesday in January and hadn't won anywhere since the end of February - and we undoubtedly rode our luck at times on Saturday.
Chelsea are now part of a congested mid-table group that includes Bournemouth, Brentford, Brighton, Fulham, Everton and Sunderland, all competing for Europa League or Conference League qualification. Ultimately, Chelsea do not deserve to be in the Champions League on the basis of their recent performances. It is therefore understandable that Chelsea's home supporters - witnessing a fourth successive home league defeat for only the second time - booed their side at full-time and chanted against the ownership.
When Tomas Soucek's effort grazed the post in the final stages of West Ham United's defeat at Brentford on Saturday afternoon, their supporters could've been forgiven for exchanging exasperated looks. The 3-0 scoreline at Gtech Community Stadium may point to a comfortable victory for Keith Andrews' Europe-chasing side, but it tells only half the story. Victory would have lifted West Ham five points clear of the bottom three, but instead they have left the door ajar for Tottenham to leapfrog them with victory at Aston Villa on Sunday night.
If Leeds are able to retain their top-flight status, the majority of supporters are likely to point to wins against relegation rivals Wolves, Burnley and West Ham as the defining moments of the season. The 49-year-old is more likely to point to a 3-2 defeat by Manchester City in late November as the moment his side's fortunes changed - and the numbers back it up. After goals from Phil Foden and Josko Gvardiol put City 2-0 up inside 25 minutes, Leeds were left fearing the worst.
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