Goal expectancy
1.39Expected goals1.27
From 39 and 39 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Burnley 1-3 Birmingham Prediction
Balanced — model leans Burnley
Estimated win chances: Burnley 39.8%, draw 26%, Birmingham 34.2%. From 39 and 39 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
45MixedBurnley
Weighted momentum
Birmingham arrives with stronger form weighting (+9 momentum).
54BuildingBirmingham
Burnley
15W · 8D · 16LRecent →WDLDDLLLWLDWDWLWWWLWWWLLLLWWLLWWDLLWDLD
Momentum index
Birmingham
17W · 12D · 10LRecent →WDLWLDDLWDWDWWWWDWDLWLLDWDLDWWWWDLWDLWL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapBirmingham +10
Burnley
53 pts38% wins
15W · 8D · 16L · 39 played
For55
Against48
Birmingham
63 pts44% wins
17W · 12D · 10L · 39 played
For63
Against42
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Burnley offensive edge
Burnley's attack (47%) vs Birmingham's defense (36%).
+11 - Birmingham offensive edge
Birmingham runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-11
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
H2H in this snapshot
From 1 meeting included in this prediction snapshot.
1Burnley100%
0Draws
0Birmingham0%