Goal expectancy
1.23Expected goals1.26
From 17 and 17 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Cabecense 35.8%, draw 27.1%, Gerena 37.2%. From 17 and 17 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
32Cold spellCabecense
Weighted momentum
Momentum is balanced — recent results cancel out.
33Cold spellGerena
Cabecense · High-risk / fragileGerena · cold form
Cabecense
4W · 4D · 9LRecent →LWDDLLDLWLWLDLLWL
Momentum index
Gerena
5W · 4D · 8LRecent →LLLWDLWWDLLDLLWDW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapGerena +3
Cabecense
16 pts24% wins
4W · 4D · 9L · 17 played
For12
Against29
Gerena
19 pts29% wins
5W · 4D · 8L · 17 played
For19
Against24
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Cabecense offensive edge
Cabecense's attack (50%) vs Gerena's defense (44%).
+6 - Gerena offensive edge
Gerena runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-6
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
CabecenseHigh-risk / fragile
Gerenacold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Cabecense40%
1Draws
2Gerena40%