Goal expectancy
1.64Expected goals1.88
From 13 and 12 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Capalaba 1-2 Logan Lightning Prediction
Open / transitional — model leans Logan Lightning
Estimated win chances: Capalaba 34.1%, draw 22.1%, Logan Lightning 43.9%. From 13 and 12 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityMedium
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
29Cold spellCapalaba
Weighted momentum
Logan Lightning arrives with stronger form weighting (+32 momentum).
61BuildingLogan Lightning
Capalaba · High-risk / fragile
Capalaba
3W · 1D · 9LRecent →LLWLWDLLWLLLL
Momentum index
Logan Lightning
6W · 2D · 4LRecent →DWWWDLWWLLLW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Capalaba
10 pts23% wins
3W · 1D · 9L · 13 played
For23
Against34
Logan Lightning
20 pts50% wins
6W · 2D · 4L · 12 played
For25
Against15
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Capalaba offensive edge
Capalaba faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-38 - Logan Lightning offensive edge
Logan Lightning's attack (64%) vs Capalaba's defense (26%).
+38
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
CapalabaHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Capalaba60%
2Draws
0Logan Lightning0%