Goal expectancy
1.37Expected goals0.80
From 13 and 13 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Defensive grind — model leans Castro
Estimated win chances: Castro 50.3%, draw 27.8%, Gama 21.9%. From 13 and 13 competition matches.
Low tempo / cageyTempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleDefensive grind
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
54BuildingCastro
Weighted momentum
Castro carries the sharper recent run (+21 momentum).
33Cold spellGama
Castro · compact defenseGama · low scoring · cold form
Castro
6W · 4D · 3LRecent →LWLDWWWDLWDDW
Momentum index
Gama
4W · 4D · 5LRecent →WLDLDLLLDDWWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapCastro +6
Castro
22 pts46% wins
6W · 4D · 3L · 13 played
For15
Against8
Gama
16 pts31% wins
4W · 4D · 5L · 13 played
For10
Against16
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Castro offensive edge
Castro's attack (50%) vs Gama's defense (36%).
+14 - Gama offensive edge
Gama runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-14
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Castrocompact defense
Gamalow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 2 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
0Castro0%
1Draws
1Gama50%