Goal expectancy
1.36Expected goals1.25
From 7 and 7 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Celaya 1-1 Cimarrones Prediction
Balanced — model leans Celaya
Estimated win chances: Celaya 39.4%, draw 26.3%, Cimarrones 34.3%. From 7 and 7 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
38Cold spellCelaya
Weighted momentum
Cimarrones arrives with stronger form weighting (+17 momentum).
55BuildingCimarrones
Celaya · low scoring · cold form
Celaya
1W · 3D · 3LRecent →WDDLDLL
Momentum index
Cimarrones
3W · 2D · 2LRecent →LWWDWLD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapCimarrones +5
Celaya
6 pts14% wins
1W · 3D · 3L · 7 played
For6
Against8
Cimarrones
11 pts43% wins
3W · 2D · 2L · 7 played
For12
Against10
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Celaya offensive edge
Celaya faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-14 - Cimarrones offensive edge
Cimarrones's attack (64%) vs Celaya's defense (50%).
+14
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Celayalow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 6 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Celaya50%
3Draws
0Cimarrones0%