Goal expectancy
1.52Expected goals1.26
From 17 and 15 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Cerfa
Estimated win chances: Cerfa 43.3%, draw 25.1%, Usbm 31.5%. From 17 and 15 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
19Cold spellCerfa
Weighted momentum
Usbm arrives with stronger form weighting (+20 momentum).
39Cold spellUsbm
Cerfa · cold formUsbm · High-risk / fragile
Cerfa
2W · 5D · 10LRecent →LLLWLDLDLDDLLLDLW
Momentum index
Usbm
6W · 1D · 8LRecent →LLWLLWWLLWLWWDL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Cerfa
11 pts12% wins
2W · 5D · 10L · 17 played
For18
Against27
Usbm
19 pts40% wins
6W · 1D · 8L · 15 played
For18
Against25
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Cerfa offensive edge
Cerfa's attack (60%) vs Usbm's defense (52%).
+8 - Usbm offensive edge
Usbm runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-8
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Cerfacold form
UsbmHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 7 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
4Cerfa57%
1Draws
2Usbm29%