Goal expectancy
1.18Expected goals1.58
From 11 and 12 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Progreso
Estimated win chances: Cerrito 28.5%, draw 24.9%, Progreso 46.6%. From 11 and 12 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
54BuildingCerrito
Weighted momentum
Progreso arrives with stronger form weighting (+30 momentum).
84Hot streakProgreso
Progreso · compact defense · hot form
Cerrito
4W · 3D · 4LRecent →LWWWDWLDDLL
Momentum index
Progreso
9W · 3D · 0LRecent →WWWDWWWDDWWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Cerrito
15 pts36% wins
4W · 3D · 4L · 11 played
For13
Against16
Progreso
30 pts75% wins
9W · 3D · 0L · 12 played
For27
Against8
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Cerrito offensive edge
Cerrito faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-13 - Progreso offensive edge
Progreso's attack (58%) vs Cerrito's defense (45%).
+13
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Progresocompact defense · hot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 8 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
4Cerrito50%
2Draws
2Progreso25%