Goal expectancy
1.40Expected goals0.76
From 14 and 14 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Cerro Largo 2-1 Progreso Prediction
Defensive grind — model leans Cerro Largo
Estimated win chances: Cerro Largo 52.2%, draw 27.5%, Progreso 20.3%. From 14 and 14 competition matches.
Low tempo / cageyTempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleDefensive grind
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
55BuildingCerro Largo
Weighted momentum
Cerro Largo carries the sharper recent run (+35 momentum).
20Cold spellProgreso
Cerro Largo · Structured / conservativeProgreso · low scoring · cold form
Cerro Largo
5W · 4D · 5LRecent →WWDWLDWLDWLLLD
Momentum index
Progreso
1W · 5D · 8LRecent →LDLDLWLDDLLLLD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapCerro Largo +11
Cerro Largo
19 pts36% wins
5W · 4D · 5L · 14 played
For13
Against10
Progreso
8 pts7% wins
1W · 5D · 8L · 14 played
For8
Against22
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Cerro Largo offensive edge
Cerro Largo's attack (67%) vs Progreso's defense (20%).
+47 - Progreso offensive edge
Progreso runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-47
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Cerro LargoStructured / conservative
Progresolow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 6 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Cerro Largo33%
1Draws
3Progreso50%