Goal expectancy
1.40Expected goals1.11
From 5 and 5 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Cerro
Estimated win chances: Cerro 43.6%, draw 26.6%, Progreso 29.8%. From 5 and 5 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
15Cold spellCerro
Weighted momentum
Momentum is balanced — recent results cancel out.
17Cold spellProgreso
Cerro · low scoring · cold formProgreso · High-risk / fragile
Cerro
0W · 2D · 3LRecent →LDDLL
Momentum index
Progreso
0W · 2D · 3LRecent →DDLLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapLevel on points
Cerro
2 pts0% wins
0W · 2D · 3L · 5 played
For2
Against7
Progreso
2 pts0% wins
0W · 2D · 3L · 5 played
For4
Against10
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Cerro offensive edge
Cerro faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-8 - Progreso offensive edge
Progreso's attack (67%) vs Cerro's defense (59%).
+8
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Cerrolow scoring · cold form
ProgresoHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 9 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
4Cerro44%
3Draws
2Progreso22%