Goal expectancy
1.01Expected goals1.48
From 19 and 19 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Châtel-St-Denis 1-0 UGS Prediction
Balanced — model leans Ugs
Estimated win chances: Châtel-st-denis 25.8%, draw 26.2%, Ugs 48%. From 19 and 19 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
16Cold spellChâtel-st-denis
Weighted momentum
Ugs arrives with stronger form weighting (+36 momentum).
52BuildingUgs
Châtel-st-denis · High-risk / fragile
Châtel-st-denis
2W · 3D · 14LRecent →LWLDLLLLLLLLLWDLLLD
Momentum index
Ugs
7W · 6D · 6LRecent →WWLLWLWLDWWDLDDWDLD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapUgs +18
Châtel-st-denis
9 pts11% wins
2W · 3D · 14L · 19 played
For10
Against40
Ugs
27 pts37% wins
7W · 6D · 6L · 19 played
For25
Against21
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Châtel-st-denis offensive edge
Châtel-st-denis faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-32 - Ugs offensive edge
Ugs's attack (71%) vs Châtel-st-denis's defense (39%).
+32
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Châtel-st-denisHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 3 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
1Châtel-st-denis33%
1Draws
1Ugs33%