Goal expectancy
1.49Expected goals1.30
From 27 and 24 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Cimarrones 0-1 Celaya Prediction
Balanced — model leans Cimarrones
Estimated win chances: Cimarrones 41.7%, draw 25.2%, Celaya 33.1%. From 27 and 24 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
41MixedCimarrones
Weighted momentum
Celaya arrives with stronger form weighting (+12 momentum).
53BuildingCelaya
Cimarrones
9W · 9D · 9LRecent →DDLWWLLLDDDLWWDLWWLDLWWDWLD
Momentum index
Celaya
9W · 7D · 8LRecent →LDLWWDWWWLDWWWLLDWDDLDLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Cimarrones
36 pts33% wins
9W · 9D · 9L · 27 played
For45
Against43
Celaya
34 pts38% wins
9W · 7D · 8L · 24 played
For31
Against24
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Cimarrones offensive edge
Cimarrones's attack (64%) vs Celaya's defense (60%).
+4 - Celaya offensive edge
Celaya runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-4
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
H2H in this snapshot
From 7 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Cimarrones43%
4Draws
0Celaya0%