Goal expectancy
1.63Expected goals1.22
From 29 and 27 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Cimarrones 2-1 Celaya Prediction
Open / transitional — model leans Cimarrones
Estimated win chances: Cimarrones 46.9%, draw 24.4%, Celaya 28.6%. From 29 and 27 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
58BuildingCimarrones
Weighted momentum
Momentum is balanced — recent results cancel out.
64BuildingCelaya
Cimarrones · compact defense
Cimarrones
15W · 9D · 5LRecent →LDDWDWWLWDWLDWWWWDDDWLWWLDWWW
Momentum index
Celaya
15W · 4D · 8LRecent →WWWDLDLWLWDWWWWWWWWDLLLLWLW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Cimarrones
54 pts52% wins
15W · 9D · 5L · 29 played
For50
Against23
Celaya
49 pts56% wins
15W · 4D · 8L · 27 played
For52
Against35
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Cimarrones offensive edge
Cimarrones's attack (39%) vs Celaya's defense (33%).
+6 - Celaya offensive edge
Celaya runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-6
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Cimarronescompact defense
H2H in this snapshot
From 9 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
4Cimarrones44%
4Draws
1Celaya11%