Goal expectancy
1.53Expected goals1.26
From 14 and 14 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Colunga
Estimated win chances: Colunga 43.6%, draw 25.1%, Lenense 31.4%. From 14 and 14 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
38Cold spellColunga
Weighted momentum
Colunga carries the sharper recent run (+23 momentum).
15Cold spellLenense
Colunga · High-risk / fragileLenense · High-risk / fragile
Colunga
5W · 3D · 6LRecent →DLDLWLLWWLWLWD
Momentum index
Lenense
1W · 6D · 7LRecent →LLDLDDLLLLDDDW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapColunga +9
Colunga
18 pts36% wins
5W · 3D · 6L · 14 played
For16
Against27
Lenense
9 pts7% wins
1W · 6D · 7L · 14 played
For12
Against24
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Colunga offensive edge
Colunga's attack (63%) vs Lenense's defense (47%).
+16 - Lenense offensive edge
Lenense runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-15
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
ColungaHigh-risk / fragile
LenenseHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 7 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Colunga43%
3Draws
1Lenense14%