Goal expectancy
1.18Expected goals1.07
From 12 and 11 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Defensive grind — model leans Confiança
Estimated win chances: Confiança 38.4%, draw 28.7%, Sergipe 32.9%. From 12 and 11 competition matches.
Low tempo / cageyTempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleDefensive grind
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
61BuildingConfiança
Weighted momentum
Sergipe arrives with stronger form weighting (+12 momentum).
73Hot streakSergipe
Confiança · compact defenseSergipe · compact defense · hot form
Confiança
6W · 3D · 3LRecent →WLWDWWWLLDDW
Momentum index
Sergipe
7W · 3D · 1LRecent →WDLWWWWWWDD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Confiança
21 pts50% wins
6W · 3D · 3L · 12 played
For14
Against8
Sergipe
24 pts64% wins
7W · 3D · 1L · 11 played
For16
Against8
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Confiança offensive edge
Confiança's attack (46%) vs Sergipe's defense (38%).
+8 - Sergipe offensive edge
Sergipe runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-9
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Confiançacompact defense
Sergipecompact defense · hot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 8 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
4Confiança50%
4Draws
0Sergipe0%