Goal expectancy
1.63Expected goals0.80
From 28 and 28 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Covadonga
Estimated win chances: Covadonga 57.1%, draw 24.6%, Ceares 18.3%. From 28 and 28 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialLow
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
69Hot streakCovadonga
Weighted momentum
Covadonga carries the sharper recent run (+31 momentum).
38Cold spellCeares
Covadonga · compact defense · hot formCeares · cold form
Covadonga
18W · 6D · 4LRecent →DDWWWWWWWLWLLDWDLWWDWWDWWWWW
Momentum index
Ceares
7W · 10D · 11LRecent →DWDLLWLLDDWLLDDWWLWLDDDLLDLW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapCovadonga +29
Covadonga
60 pts64% wins
18W · 6D · 4L · 28 played
For47
Against15
Ceares
31 pts25% wins
7W · 10D · 11L · 28 played
For31
Against37
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Covadonga offensive edge
Covadonga's attack (64%) vs Ceares's defense (40%).
+24 - Ceares offensive edge
Ceares runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-24
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Covadongacompact defense · hot form
Cearescold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Covadonga60%
1Draws
1Ceares20%