Goal expectancy
2.11Expected goals0.75
From 21 and 21 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Open / transitional — model leans Covadonga
Estimated win chances: Covadonga 68.9%, draw 19.1%, Lenense 12.1%. From 21 and 21 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialLow
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
86Hot streakCovadonga
Weighted momentum
Covadonga carries the sharper recent run (+66 momentum).
20Cold spellLenense
Covadonga · compact defense · hot formLenense · High-risk / fragile
Covadonga
16W · 4D · 1LRecent →WWWWWDDWWWWWLWWWWWDWD
Momentum index
Lenense
2W · 8D · 11LRecent →DLWLLDLLLDLDDLLLLDDDW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapCovadonga +38
Covadonga
52 pts76% wins
16W · 4D · 1L · 21 played
For48
Against12
Lenense
14 pts10% wins
2W · 8D · 11L · 21 played
For16
Against38
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Covadonga offensive edge
Covadonga's attack (85%) vs Lenense's defense (9%).
+76 - Lenense offensive edge
Lenense runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-76
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Covadongacompact defense · hot form
LenenseHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 7 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Covadonga43%
2Draws
2Lenense29%