Goal expectancy
1.40Expected goals1.50
From 6 and 6 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Open / transitional — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Danubio 35.4%, draw 24.7%, Progreso 39.9%. From 6 and 6 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
31Cold spellDanubio
Weighted momentum
Progreso arrives with stronger form weighting (+57 momentum).
88Hot streakProgreso
Danubio · low scoring · cold formProgreso · Open but unstable
Danubio
2W · 1D · 3LRecent →LLWLDW
Momentum index
Progreso
5W · 1D · 0LRecent →WWDWWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapProgreso +9
Danubio
7 pts33% wins
2W · 1D · 3L · 6 played
For4
Against6
Progreso
16 pts83% wins
5W · 1D · 0L · 6 played
For17
Against10
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Danubio offensive edge
Danubio faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-25 - Progreso offensive edge
Progreso's attack (88%) vs Danubio's defense (62%).
+26
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Danubiolow scoring · cold form
ProgresoOpen but unstable
H2H in this snapshot
From 3 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
1Danubio33%
1Draws
1Progreso33%