Goal expectancy
1.96Expected goals1.11
From 3 and 3 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Open / transitional — model leans Danubio
Estimated win chances: Danubio 57.1%, draw 21.8%, Progreso 21.1%. From 3 and 3 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityMedium
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
33Cold spellDanubio
Weighted momentum
Danubio carries the sharper recent run (+33 momentum).
0Cold spellProgreso
Danubio · low scoring · cold formProgreso · High-risk / fragile
Danubio
0W · 3D · 0LRecent →DDD
Momentum index
Progreso
0W · 0D · 3LRecent →LLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapDanubio +3
Danubio
3 pts0% wins
0W · 3D · 0L · 3 played
For3
Against3
Progreso
0 pts0% wins
0W · 0D · 3L · 3 played
For3
Against12
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Danubio offensive edge
Danubio's attack (50%) vs Progreso's defense (20%).
+30 - Progreso offensive edge
Progreso runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-30
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Danubiolow scoring · cold form
ProgresoHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 4 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
0Danubio0%
3Draws
1Progreso25%