Goal expectancy
1.55Expected goals0.99
From 3 and 3 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Danubio
Estimated win chances: Danubio 50.3%, draw 25.5%, Progreso 24.2%. From 3 and 3 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
58BuildingDanubio
Weighted momentum
Danubio carries the sharper recent run (+58 momentum).
0Cold spellProgreso
Danubio · low scoringProgreso · High-risk / fragile
Danubio
2W · 0D · 1LRecent →LWW
Momentum index
Progreso
0W · 0D · 3LRecent →LLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapDanubio +6
Danubio
6 pts67% wins
2W · 0D · 1L · 3 played
For3
Against4
Progreso
0 pts0% wins
0W · 0D · 3L · 3 played
For0
Against6
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Danubio offensive edge
Danubio's attack (100%) vs Progreso's defense (40%).
+60 - Progreso offensive edge
Progreso runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-60
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Danubiolow scoring
ProgresoHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 9 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Danubio33%
4Draws
2Progreso22%