Defensor Sporting 1-0 Cerro Largo Prediction

Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting
1 — 0FT
Cerro LargoCerro Largo
OverviewLineupsStatisticsStandingsEventsPlayersPredictionsFormInjuriesH2H

Updated

Defensor SportingDefensor SportingvsCerro LargoCerro Largo

Match DNA · Predictions ↗

Balanced — model leans Defensor Sporting

Estimated win chances: Defensor Sporting 58.8%, draw 22.5%, Cerro Largo 18.7%. From 13 and 13 competition matches.

TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialLow
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceHigh

Outcome model

Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.

Goal expectancy

1.84Expected goals0.93

From 13 and 13 competition matches

Likely scorelines (Poisson)

  • 1–012%
  • 1–111.2%
  • 2–011.1%
  • 2–110.3%
  • 3–06.8%

Form & momentum

Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.

65BuildingDefensor Sporting
Weighted momentum

Defensor Sporting carries the sharper recent run (+28 momentum).

37Cold spellCerro Largo
Defensor Sporting · compact defenseCerro Largo · low scoring · cold form

Defensor Sporting

7W · 5D · 1L
Recent →DWWLDWWDDWWWD
Momentum index

Cerro Largo

2W · 5D · 6L
Recent →WDWLDDLLDLDLL
Momentum index

Form split comparison

Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window

Season record

League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.

Table gapDefensor Sporting +15

Defensor Sporting

26 pts
54% wins

7W · 5D · 1L · 13 played

For
28
Against
11
Goal diff +17

Cerro Largo

11 pts
15% wins

2W · 5D · 6L · 13 played

For
13
Against
18
Goal diff -5

Season shape comparison

League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals

League depth signals

Extremes, discipline windows, and split stats from the full league profile.

Matchup edges

Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.

  • Defensor Sporting offensive edge

    Defensor Sporting's attack (67%) vs Cerro Largo's defense (63%).

    +4
  • Cerro Largo offensive edge

    Cerro Largo runs into a stronger home defensive profile.

    -5

Team comparison

Comparison indices from the match data partner.

Attack rating

Attacking threat in the final third.

Defensor Sporting67
Cerro Largo33

Defense rating

How well each side limits chances.

Defensor Sporting38
Cerro Largo63

Momentum

Weighted form score (recent results count more).

Defensor Sporting65
Cerro Largo37

Matchup edge

Attack vs opponent defense (positive = favourable matchup).

Defensor Sporting58
Cerro Largo40

Volatility

Higher = more swingy results (big losses, goals against).

Defensor Sporting30
Cerro Largo30

Form index

Head-to-head form comparison from the model.

Defensor Sporting50
Cerro Largo50

H2H pull

Historical dominance in recent meetings.

Defensor Sporting100
Cerro Largo0
Defensor Sportingcompact defense
Cerro Largolow scoring · cold form