Goal expectancy
1.25Expected goals0.92
From 29 and 29 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Defensor Sporting 1-0 Danubio Prediction
Defensive grind — model leans Defensor Sporting
Estimated win chances: Defensor Sporting 43.9%, draw 28.8%, Danubio 27.3%. From 29 and 29 competition matches.
Low tempo / cageyTempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleDefensive grind
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
32Cold spellDefensor Sporting
Weighted momentum
Defensor Sporting carries the sharper recent run (+8 momentum).
24Cold spellDanubio
Defensor Sporting · low scoring · cold formDanubio · low scoring · cold form
Defensor Sporting
7W · 11D · 11LRecent →LWDLDLLWLDDDLLLDWDWLDDWLDLWWD
Momentum index
Danubio
4W · 14D · 11LRecent →DDLLDDLDLDDDLLLLWDDDLDLWDDLWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapDefensor Sporting +6
Defensor Sporting
32 pts24% wins
7W · 11D · 11L · 29 played
For25
Against33
Danubio
26 pts14% wins
4W · 14D · 11L · 29 played
For24
Against38
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Defensor Sporting offensive edge
Defensor Sporting's attack (75%) vs Danubio's defense (53%).
+22 - Danubio offensive edge
Danubio runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-22
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Defensor Sportinglow scoring · cold form
Danubiolow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 10 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
4Defensor Sporting40%
5Draws
1Danubio10%