Goal expectancy
1.19Expected goals1.12
From 16 and 16 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Defensor Sporting 0-2 Penarol Prediction
Balanced — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Defensor Sporting 37.6%, draw 28.3%, Penarol 34.1%. From 16 and 16 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
39Cold spellDefensor Sporting
Weighted momentum
Penarol arrives with stronger form weighting (+21 momentum).
60BuildingPenarol
Defensor Sporting · Structured / conservative
Defensor Sporting
5W · 6D · 5LRecent →LLDWDWLDDWLDLWWD
Momentum index
Penarol
9W · 3D · 4LRecent →WWDLDLWLWWWDWWLW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapPenarol +9
Defensor Sporting
21 pts31% wins
5W · 6D · 5L · 16 played
For14
Against13
Penarol
30 pts56% wins
9W · 3D · 4L · 16 played
For25
Against17
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Defensor Sporting offensive edge
Defensor Sporting faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-8 - Penarol offensive edge
Penarol's attack (62%) vs Defensor Sporting's defense (54%).
+8
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Defensor SportingStructured / conservative
H2H in this snapshot
From 10 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
6Defensor Sporting60%
1Draws
3Penarol30%