Goal expectancy
1.90Expected goals1.23
From 16 and 16 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Defensor Sporting 1-1 Progreso Prediction
Open / transitional — model leans Defensor Sporting
Estimated win chances: Defensor Sporting 53%, draw 22.4%, Progreso 24.6%. From 16 and 16 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
67BuildingDefensor Sporting
Weighted momentum
Defensor Sporting carries the sharper recent run (+22 momentum).
45MixedProgreso
Defensor Sporting · hot form
Defensor Sporting
9W · 4D · 3LRecent →WWWLWWDLDWDWLDWW
Momentum index
Progreso
8W · 3D · 5LRecent →WLLLLLWDWDWWDWWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapDefensor Sporting +4
Defensor Sporting
31 pts56% wins
9W · 4D · 3L · 16 played
For33
Against17
Progreso
27 pts50% wins
8W · 3D · 5L · 16 played
For26
Against25
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Defensor Sporting offensive edge
Defensor Sporting's attack (80%) vs Progreso's defense (31%).
+49 - Progreso offensive edge
Progreso runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-49
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Defensor Sportinghot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 4 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
1Defensor Sporting25%
2Draws
1Progreso25%