Goal expectancy
1.40Expected goals0.97
Projected line: 1–1
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Defensor Sporting 3-0 Progreso Prediction
Balanced — model leans Defensor Sporting, projected 1–1
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
39Cold spellDefensor Sporting
Weighted momentum
Defensor Sporting carries the sharper recent run (+22 momentum).
17Cold spellProgreso
Defensor Sporting · cold formProgreso · low scoring · cold form
Defensor Sporting
4W · 4D · 3LRecent →WDWWLDWDLDL
Momentum index
Progreso
1W · 4D · 6LRecent →DLWLDDLLLLD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapDefensor Sporting +9
Defensor Sporting
16 pts36% wins
4W · 4D · 3L · 11 played
For14
Against12
Progreso
7 pts9% wins
1W · 4D · 6L · 11 played
For5
Against12
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Defensor Sporting offensive edge
Defensor Sporting's attack (67%) vs Progreso's defense (57%).
+10 - Progreso offensive edge
Progreso runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-10
Sportra ratings
Derived indices from the full statistical profile.
Defensor Sportingcold form
Progresolow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
1Defensor Sporting20%
3Draws
1Progreso20%