Goal expectancy
1.64Expected goals0.88
From 11 and 11 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Defensor Sporting 1-2 Progreso Prediction
Balanced — model leans Defensor Sporting
Estimated win chances: Defensor Sporting 55.3%, draw 24.6%, Progreso 20.1%. From 11 and 11 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
59BuildingDefensor Sporting
Weighted momentum
Defensor Sporting carries the sharper recent run (+27 momentum).
32Cold spellProgreso
Defensor Sporting · compact defenseProgreso · High-risk / fragile
Defensor Sporting
6W · 3D · 2LRecent →WDWDDLLWWWW
Momentum index
Progreso
1W · 6D · 4LRecent →DDLDWDDDLLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapDefensor Sporting +12
Defensor Sporting
21 pts55% wins
6W · 3D · 2L · 11 played
For14
Against7
Progreso
9 pts9% wins
1W · 6D · 4L · 11 played
For11
Against20
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Defensor Sporting offensive edge
Defensor Sporting's attack (60%) vs Progreso's defense (43%).
+17 - Progreso offensive edge
Progreso runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-17
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Defensor Sportingcompact defense
ProgresoHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 6 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Defensor Sporting33%
3Draws
1Progreso17%