Goal expectancy
1.37Expected goals0.87
From 12 and 12 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Defensor Sporting 1-0 Progreso Prediction
Defensive grind — model leans Defensor Sporting
Estimated win chances: Defensor Sporting 48.5%, draw 27.7%, Progreso 23.8%. From 12 and 12 competition matches.
Low tempo / cageyTempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleDefensive grind
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
45MixedDefensor Sporting
Weighted momentum
Defensor Sporting carries the sharper recent run (+12 momentum).
33Cold spellProgreso
Defensor Sporting · Structured / conservativeProgreso · low scoring · cold form
Defensor Sporting
4W · 5D · 3LRecent →DWLDDWLDLWWD
Momentum index
Progreso
2W · 4D · 6LRecent →WLLDDLWDDLLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapDefensor Sporting +7
Defensor Sporting
17 pts33% wins
4W · 5D · 3L · 12 played
For10
Against8
Progreso
10 pts17% wins
2W · 4D · 6L · 12 played
For11
Against19
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Defensor Sporting offensive edge
Defensor Sporting's attack (40%) vs Progreso's defense (27%).
+13 - Progreso offensive edge
Progreso runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-13
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Defensor SportingStructured / conservative
Progresolow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 9 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Defensor Sporting22%
4Draws
3Progreso33%