Derby 0-1 Middlesbrough Prediction

DerbyDerby
0 — 1FT
MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough
OverviewLineupsStatisticsStandingsEventsPlayersPredictionsFormInjuriesH2H

Updated

DerbyDerbyvsMiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough

Match DNA · Predictions ↗

Balanced — model leans Derby

Estimated win chances: Derby 39.2%, draw 27.9%, Middlesbrough 32.9%. From 42 and 42 competition matches.

TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceLow

Outcome model

Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.

Goal expectancy

1.24Expected goals1.11

From 42 and 42 competition matches

Likely scorelines (Poisson)

  • 1–113.3%
  • 1–012%
  • 0–110.7%
  • 0–09.7%
  • 2–18.3%

Form & momentum

Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.

47MixedDerby
Weighted momentum

Momentum is balanced — recent results cancel out.

43MixedMiddlesbrough

Derby

17W · 9D · 16L
Recent →WDDWLWWLWDLLLDLDWWWWLWDLLLLLWLDDLDWWLLWWWW
Momentum index

Middlesbrough

16W · 15D · 11L
Recent →LLDDDDLLWWLWWDDLLLDWWWWLDDWWLWLDDDDWWDWWWD
Momentum index

Form split comparison

Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window

Season record

League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.

Table gapMiddlesbrough +3

Derby

60 pts
40% wins

17W · 9D · 16L · 42 played

For
47
Against
53
Goal diff -6

Middlesbrough

63 pts
38% wins

16W · 15D · 11L · 42 played

For
48
Against
48
Goal diff +0

Season shape comparison

League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals

League depth signals

Extremes, discipline windows, and split stats from the full league profile.

Matchup edges

Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.

  • Derby offensive edge

    Derby's attack (60%) vs Middlesbrough's defense (42%).

    +18
  • Middlesbrough offensive edge

    Middlesbrough runs into a stronger home defensive profile.

    -18

Team comparison

Comparison indices from the match data partner.

Attack rating

Attacking threat in the final third.

Derby60
Middlesbrough40

Defense rating

How well each side limits chances.

Derby58
Middlesbrough42

Momentum

Weighted form score (recent results count more).

Derby47
Middlesbrough43

Matchup edge

Attack vs opponent defense (positive = favourable matchup).

Derby86
Middlesbrough14

Volatility

Higher = more swingy results (big losses, goals against).

Derby30
Middlesbrough30

Form index

Head-to-head form comparison from the model.

Derby73
Middlesbrough27

H2H pull

Historical dominance in recent meetings.

Derby0
Middlesbrough100