Derby 1-0 Millwall Prediction

DerbyDerby
1 — 0FT
MillwallMillwall
OverviewLineupsStatisticsStandingsEventsPlayersPredictionsFormInjuriesH2H

Updated

DerbyDerbyvsMillwallMillwall

Match DNA · Predictions ↗

Balanced — model leans Derby

Estimated win chances: Derby 46%, draw 25.4%, Millwall 28.6%. From 45 and 45 competition matches.

TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium

Outcome model

Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.

Goal expectancy

1.53Expected goals1.15

From 45 and 45 competition matches

Likely scorelines (Poisson)

  • 1–112.4%
  • 1–010.8%
  • 2–19.5%
  • 2–08.2%
  • 0–18.1%

Form & momentum

Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.

42MixedDerby
Weighted momentum

Momentum is balanced — recent results cancel out.

38Cold spellMillwall
Millwall · cold form

Derby

15W · 13D · 17L
Recent →LWDLLWWWLDLLDDLDWDLWDLLWWLDWLLWWLWDDDWLWLWDLD
Momentum index

Millwall

15W · 11D · 19L
Recent →DLLLWLDDWWLLWLLLLLDWLLDWLDWWWWDWWDDWDDLLLWLWL
Momentum index

Form split comparison

Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window

Season record

League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.

Table gapDerby +2

Derby

58 pts
33% wins

15W · 13D · 17L · 45 played

For
64
Against
62
Goal diff +2

Millwall

56 pts
33% wins

15W · 11D · 19L · 45 played

For
51
Against
61
Goal diff -10

Season shape comparison

League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals

League depth signals

Extremes, discipline windows, and split stats from the full league profile.

Matchup edges

Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.

  • Derby offensive edge

    Derby's attack (71%) vs Millwall's defense (54%).

    +17
  • Millwall offensive edge

    Millwall runs into a stronger home defensive profile.

    -17

Team comparison

Comparison indices from the match data partner.

Attack rating

Attacking threat in the final third.

Derby71
Millwall29

Defense rating

How well each side limits chances.

Derby46
Millwall54

Momentum

Weighted form score (recent results count more).

Derby42
Millwall38

Matchup edge

Attack vs opponent defense (positive = favourable matchup).

Derby84
Millwall16

Volatility

Higher = more swingy results (big losses, goals against).

Derby30
Millwall30

Form index

Head-to-head form comparison from the model.

Derby50
Millwall50

H2H pull

Historical dominance in recent meetings.

Derby50
Millwall50
Millwallcold form