Derby 3-0 Millwall Prediction

DerbyDerby
3 — 0FT
MillwallMillwall
OverviewLineupsStatisticsStandingsEventsPlayersPredictionsFormInjuriesH2H

Updated

DerbyDerbyvsMillwallMillwall

Match DNA · Predictions ↗

Balanced — model leans Derby

Estimated win chances: Derby 47%, draw 26.6%, Millwall 26.5%. From 22 and 22 competition matches.

TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh

Outcome model

Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.

Goal expectancy

1.44Expected goals1.01

From 22 and 22 competition matches

Likely scorelines (Poisson)

  • 1–112.8%
  • 1–012.7%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 2–09.1%
  • 0–18.9%

Form & momentum

Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.

68Hot streakDerby
Weighted momentum

Derby carries the sharper recent run (+26 momentum).

42MixedMillwall
Derby · hot form

Derby

12W · 5D · 5L
Recent →WWWLWWDLWWWWDDDLWLWWLD
Momentum index

Millwall

6W · 8D · 8L
Recent →WDWLDDLLDWLLWDWDLWDLDL
Momentum index

Form split comparison

Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window

Season record

League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.

Table gapDerby +15

Derby

41 pts
55% wins

12W · 5D · 5L · 22 played

For
35
Against
21
Goal diff +14

Millwall

26 pts
27% wins

6W · 8D · 8L · 22 played

For
24
Against
22
Goal diff +2

Season shape comparison

League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals

League depth signals

Extremes, discipline windows, and split stats from the full league profile.

Matchup edges

Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.

  • Derby offensive edge

    Derby's attack (64%) vs Millwall's defense (25%).

    +39
  • Millwall offensive edge

    Millwall runs into a stronger home defensive profile.

    -39

Team comparison

Comparison indices from the match data partner.

Attack rating

Attacking threat in the final third.

Derby64
Millwall36

Defense rating

How well each side limits chances.

Derby75
Millwall25

Momentum

Weighted form score (recent results count more).

Derby68
Millwall42

Matchup edge

Attack vs opponent defense (positive = favourable matchup).

Derby128
Millwall-28

Volatility

Higher = more swingy results (big losses, goals against).

Derby30
Millwall30

Form index

Head-to-head form comparison from the model.

Derby60
Millwall40

H2H pull

Historical dominance in recent meetings.

Derby62
Millwall38
Derbyhot form