Goal expectancy
1.39Expected goals1.07
From 26 and 26 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Derio
Estimated win chances: Derio 44.2%, draw 26.8%, Durango 28.9%. From 26 and 26 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
58BuildingDerio
Weighted momentum
Derio carries the sharper recent run (+13 momentum).
45MixedDurango
Durango · compact defense
Derio
13W · 4D · 9LRecent →WWDWWLWLWLLLDWDWLWWWWLLDLW
Momentum index
Durango
9W · 9D · 8LRecent →WLLLWLWDLDLWWWDWWLLDDDWDDD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapDerio +7
Derio
43 pts50% wins
13W · 4D · 9L · 26 played
For41
Against31
Durango
36 pts35% wins
9W · 9D · 8L · 26 played
For29
Against24
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Derio offensive edge
Derio's attack (55%) vs Durango's defense (36%).
+19 - Durango offensive edge
Durango runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-19
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Durangocompact defense
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
1Derio20%
2Draws
2Durango40%