Goal expectancy
1.30Expected goals1.66
From 31 and 31 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Open / transitional — model leans Basconia
Estimated win chances: Durango 30%, draw 24.1%, Basconia 45.9%. From 31 and 31 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
45MixedDurango
Weighted momentum
Basconia arrives with stronger form weighting (+36 momentum).
81Hot streakBasconia
Basconia · compact defense · hot form
Durango
9W · 10D · 12LRecent →WWWLDLDWWDLDDDLWLLWWLLLLDDLLDDW
Momentum index
Basconia
21W · 6D · 4LRecent →WWWWDWWWWWWWDWDLWWWWWDLLWDLWWDW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapBasconia +32
Durango
37 pts29% wins
9W · 10D · 12L · 31 played
For42
Against36
Basconia
69 pts68% wins
21W · 6D · 4L · 31 played
For82
Against29
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Durango offensive edge
Durango faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-28 - Basconia offensive edge
Basconia's attack (68%) vs Durango's defense (40%).
+28
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Basconiacompact defense · hot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 9 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Durango22%
2Draws
5Basconia56%