Goal expectancy
1.29Expected goals1.26
From 13 and 13 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Durango 37.4%, draw 26.7%, Leioa 35.9%. From 13 and 13 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
35Cold spellDurango
Weighted momentum
Leioa arrives with stronger form weighting (+38 momentum).
73Hot streakLeioa
Durango · cold formLeioa · compact defense · hot form
Durango
3W · 4D · 6LRecent →WWLLLLDDLLDDW
Momentum index
Leioa
8W · 3D · 2LRecent →WDWWDWWLWWLWD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapLeioa +14
Durango
13 pts23% wins
3W · 4D · 6L · 13 played
For20
Against18
Leioa
27 pts62% wins
8W · 3D · 2L · 13 played
For18
Against9
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Durango offensive edge
Durango faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-20 - Leioa offensive edge
Leioa's attack (31%) vs Durango's defense (11%).
+20
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Durangocold form
Leioacompact defense · hot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 6 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Durango50%
1Draws
2Leioa33%