Goal expectancy
1.35Expected goals0.98
From 5 and 5 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Durango
Estimated win chances: Durango 45.3%, draw 27.5%, Leioa 27.2%. From 5 and 5 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
49MixedDurango
Weighted momentum
Durango carries the sharper recent run (+13 momentum).
36Cold spellLeioa
Durango · Structured / conservativeLeioa · low scoring · cold form
Durango
1W · 4D · 0LRecent →DWDDD
Momentum index
Leioa
2W · 0D · 3LRecent →LLWWL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapDurango +1
Durango
7 pts20% wins
1W · 4D · 0L · 5 played
For5
Against4
Leioa
6 pts40% wins
2W · 0D · 3L · 5 played
For4
Against6
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Durango offensive edge
Durango's attack (56%) vs Leioa's defense (40%).
+16 - Leioa offensive edge
Leioa runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-16
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
DurangoStructured / conservative
Leioalow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 8 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Durango38%
1Draws
4Leioa50%