Goal expectancy
1.12Expected goals1.03
From 14 and 14 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Defensive grind — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Emelec 37.5%, draw 29.5%, Macara 33%. From 14 and 14 competition matches.
Low tempo / cageyTempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleDefensive grind
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
38Cold spellEmelec
Weighted momentum
Momentum is balanced — recent results cancel out.
43MixedMacara
Emelec · low scoring · cold formMacara · low scoring
Emelec
4W · 4D · 6LRecent →DDLWWLLDLLWWLD
Momentum index
Macara
5W · 4D · 5LRecent →LWLWLWLLDWDDWD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapMacara +3
Emelec
16 pts29% wins
4W · 4D · 6L · 14 played
For10
Against16
Macara
19 pts36% wins
5W · 4D · 5L · 14 played
For14
Against15
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Emelec offensive edge
Emelec's attack (38%) vs Macara's defense (25%).
+13 - Macara offensive edge
Macara runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-12
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Emeleclow scoring · cold form
Macaralow scoring
H2H in this snapshot
From 10 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
4Emelec40%
3Draws
3Macara30%