Goal expectancy
1.53Expected goals2.04
From 28 and 28 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Open / transitional — model leans Locarno
Estimated win chances: Emmen 29%, draw 21.4%, Locarno 49.6%. From 28 and 28 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityMedium
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
29Cold spellEmmen
Weighted momentum
Locarno arrives with stronger form weighting (+36 momentum).
65BuildingLocarno
Emmen · High-risk / fragile
Emmen
7W · 7D · 14LRecent →LLLLWDDLLLDWDDLLWDLWDWLWLLWL
Momentum index
Locarno
16W · 6D · 6LRecent →WLWWWLWLWWLLWWDWWWDDWDDDWWLW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapLocarno +26
Emmen
28 pts25% wins
7W · 7D · 14L · 28 played
For47
Against66
Locarno
54 pts57% wins
16W · 6D · 6L · 28 played
For66
Against30
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Emmen offensive edge
Emmen faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-39 - Locarno offensive edge
Locarno's attack (57%) vs Emmen's defense (18%).
+39
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
EmmenHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 3 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Emmen67%
0Draws
1Locarno33%