Goal expectancy
2.07Expected goals1.86
From 22 and 22 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Erchim 0-3 Ulaanbaatar Prediction
Open / transitional — model leans Erchim
Estimated win chances: Erchim 43.7%, draw 20.8%, Ulaanbaatar 35.5%. From 22 and 22 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityMedium
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
26Cold spellErchim
Weighted momentum
Ulaanbaatar arrives with stronger form weighting (+29 momentum).
55BuildingUlaanbaatar
Erchim · High-risk / fragileUlaanbaatar · leaky defense
Erchim
7W · 6D · 9LRecent →LLLLLLDLLDDDWDWWWWLDWW
Momentum index
Ulaanbaatar
10W · 5D · 7LRecent →DWLLWWLWWWWDDLLWDLWDWL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapUlaanbaatar +8
Erchim
27 pts32% wins
7W · 6D · 9L · 22 played
For51
Against47
Ulaanbaatar
35 pts45% wins
10W · 5D · 7L · 22 played
For50
Against37
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Erchim offensive edge
Erchim faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-36 - Ulaanbaatar offensive edge
Ulaanbaatar's attack (68%) vs Erchim's defense (33%).
+35
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
ErchimHigh-risk / fragile
Ulaanbaatarleaky defense
H2H in this snapshot
From 9 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
7Erchim78%
0Draws
2Ulaanbaatar22%