Goal expectancy
1.53Expected goals1.34
From 19 and 19 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Open / transitional — model leans Erguël
Estimated win chances: Erguël 41.9%, draw 24.8%, Binningen 33.3%. From 19 and 19 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
27Cold spellErguël
Weighted momentum
Binningen arrives with stronger form weighting (+13 momentum).
40MixedBinningen
Erguël · cold formBinningen · leaky defense
Erguël
3W · 8D · 8LRecent →DDDLLLLWDDDLLWLDWDL
Momentum index
Binningen
7W · 3D · 9LRecent →WLWLDLLWLDLLLWWWDWL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapBinningen +7
Erguël
17 pts16% wins
3W · 8D · 8L · 19 played
For21
Against28
Binningen
24 pts37% wins
7W · 3D · 9L · 19 played
For28
Against32
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Erguël offensive edge
Erguël faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-13 - Binningen offensive edge
Binningen's attack (58%) vs Erguël's defense (45%).
+13
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Erguëlcold form
Binningenleaky defense
H2H in this snapshot
From 1 meeting included in this prediction snapshot.
1Erguël100%
0Draws
0Binningen0%